December 16, 2011 (Rogla, Slovenia) – The organizers of this weekend’s World Cup races in Rogla, Slovenia, are doggedly going about preparations for Saturday’s first race while mother nature conspires to thin both the start lists as well as the snow on the ground. All week the story has been about the weather conditions in Rogla, which have been wretched, coupled with the lack of snow at the race venue.

Warm, wet, and windy weather, including thunderstorms, have hampered both the organizers’ efforts to prepare the race course, as well as the athletes’ training regimens. Without a trace of natural snow anywhere in the vicinity, race organizers have spent the week preparing a race loop of artificial and stored snow, so once again the races will unfold on a “white ribbon” of snow that has become such a familiar sight to athletes and spectators so far this season.

Apparently organizers are working to prepare a relatively flat, narrow 2.0km loop that will serve as the course for Saturday’s distance events. With 10km and 15km classic mass start races slated for the women and men, respectively, tomorrow’s distances races could look more like a criterium race in cycling, complete with crashes and a mad dash to the finish. And don’t be surprised if the athletes get dizzy from all those laps! Sunday’s skate sprint races will take place on a 1.6km loop.

While FIS and race organizers remain bullish, some athletes are apprehensive about both the course conditions and the weather. Renato Pasini of Italy, for example, wrote on Twitter today: “Rogla only 5cm of new snow..1.6km track for sprint…and for 15km tomorrow!!!!!crazy!!!!”. Canada’s Ivan Babikov, meanwhile, wrote: “Went up the hill and skied on the race course. One of the worst skiing (weather) conditions of the year. Fog, stormy wind…flat course.” The USA’s Andy Newell, however, appears to embrace the anticipated chaos in his Twitter post from today: “How do you say shit show in Slovenian? Have to admit it’s going to be fun though… World cup mass start 15k tomorrow.”

The other story this week, however, is the thinning of the race fields due to sickness, as the gruelling World Cup tour starts to take a toll on athlete’s health. While fields are typically somewhat reduced in Rogla, a number of top contenders, including podium finishers from the last time the World Cup stopped here in 2010, have withdrawn due to illness. Earlier this week Anna Haag of Sweden, who was third here in 2010, announced her withdrawal due to a cold, followed shortly after by overall World Cup leader, Marit Bjoergen of Norway, who was second in 2010, also due to illness.

On the men’s side, the Swedish men’s team has been particularly hard hit with a number of key withdrawals, including distance specialist Johan Olsson, who has been struggling with bronchitis since Kuusamo, along with Calle Halfvarsson and Emil Joenssen. Canada’s Lenny Valjas is also reportedly sick although his race plans are unknown at this time.

Among the contenders this weekend, look for Norway’s Vibeke Skofterud and the USA’s Kikkan Randall to continue their hot streaks in the women’s competitions. With Bjoergen and Haag out perhaps we’ll see Skofterud capture her first ever World Cup victory. Randall is hot on her heels in the World Cup overall standings and is riding a wave of confidence after a fantastic start to the season. She has also proven she can classic ski with the best after great classic results in Kuusamo. Watch out for 2010 winner, Justyna Kowalczyk of Poland, as well, who seems to be edging closer to the podium with every race.

On the men’s side, Norway’s Petter Northug has to be the heavy favourite in Saturday’s mass start race, as he carries both the physical advantage of that devastating kick of his, as well the apparent psychological advantage of having few competitors who think they can beat him, as we saw in the final leg of the men’s 4x10km relay in Sjusjeon. Northug is the Mark Cavendish of mass start races and the relatively flat course will suit both his physical, as well as tactical strengths. Among the North Americans, both Devon Kershaw and Alex Harvey excel in mass start races as well, and the 15km classic is Kershaw’s favourite event, so look for them in the mix up front.

For Sunday’s skate sprint races, Randall is the clear favourite among the women after consecutive wins in Dusseldorf and Davos in this event. Canada’s Chandra Crawford is having her best season in a few years and could make an appearance in the final as well. On the men’s side, Russia’s Alexey Petukhov and Sweden’s Teodor Peterson have outclassed most of the field in skate sprints recently, but with Tour de Ski contenders beginning to round into shape things could get shaken up, as they did last weekend in Davos with Canada’s Kershaw grabbing 4th in the sprint final.

For a peek at the snow conditions that the race organizers in Rogla are dealing with, watch this video: