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The Sasseville Report – Pre-Season Prognostications

by Jack Sasseville
October 25, 2010 (Barrie, ON) – Even though this 2010-11 season is following the Vancouver 2010 Olympics, it will be another big year for international cross country skiers. The World Cup starts in November in Gallivare, Sweden on November 20-21 and makes its way through Europe finally ending up back in Sweden at Falun on March 18-20.

This is the first year in a while where there are no races in North America or Asia. FIS offered races to Canada this season, but Cross Country Canada decided that it would be too risky financially to hold the races so they turned them down. This means that North American athletes will be playing “away” games all season making it harder for them to collect high finishes.

The most interesting races on the World Cup are the races attached to the Tour de Ski. Modeled after the cycling tours like the Tour de France, these races run from December 31 to January 9 in central Europe. Skiers accumulate points and time with the winner being the first one to cross the line at the top of the uphill climb on the last stage.

However, the biggest races of the year will be at the Nordic World Championship in Oslo, Norway from February 23 to March 6. Racing at the Holmenkollen is like playing football in the Rose Bowl. This is the home of cross-country skiing. The stadium and the trails have been completely re-vamped for these races and you should see the new ski jump that towers over the city of Oslo – read more HERE.

All of Norway is already at a fever pitch for these games. The last time the World Championships were in Oslo was in 1982 and the Norwegian team dominated the races then. No doubt the Norwegian team would like to dominate again, but I think that they are going to have a hard time.

Their #1 skier Petter Northug has had a great summer of training and should continue to dominate the mass start races. He is not as good in interval start races, though, and there are really no other Norwegian men who compete at distance skiing who can contest for medals. These distance men were called out by the Swedes this summer who said that the Norwegians could not compete with them. A small war of words followed so it will be interesting to see what happens between these two teams. The Swedish men, led by Olympic medalists Marcus Hellner and Johan Olsson will be very strong again and are the favourites in every race they attend.

Other men’s teams to watch are the Canadians, the French, the Czechs and the Swiss. The Canadian men’s team led by Devon Kershaw, Ivan Babikov, Alex Harvey and George Grey were ranked as the 3rd best men’s team at the Olympics in Vancouver and they’ve all had great training this summer and fall. I believe that we will see some podium finishes from this team this season, including at the Nordic World Championships in Oslo.

The Swiss men, led by past overall World Cup champ Dario Cologna will also be strong. Norwegian Freddy Aukland has left the team as coach, but continues to coach Cologna personally. I also see the French team with Maurice Magnificat, Jean-Marc Gaillard and Vincent Vittoz at the top of the leaderboard in many races. Lucas Bauer will continue to lead a strong Czech team – look for him to win the Tour de Ski again for the third time in four years.

The question marks on the international scene this year are the men’s teams from Italy, Russia, Germany, and Finland. The Italians will have to totally rebuild with younger skiers this season after their disappointing performance in Vancouver. The Russians have had to fire all of their coaches and they’re still trying to overcome their past doping offences. They have some great sprinters, but the distance men are spotty. Sochi is only 4 years away so the pressure is on them to get going NOW! Finland has had some encouraging performances, but Vancouver was a disaster and they continue to search for great results. The best Germans like Tobias Angerer are up and down in the results but they are getting older and may be past their prime.

The US team also did not perform up to expectations in Vancouver. Kris Freeman continues to search for the right combination of training and rest and level of insulin to combat his diabetes. He should be over the shin problem that kept him from skating last season and finally won the recent Climb to the Castle roller ski race in Lake Placid for the first time so everything looks good so far. Andy Newell has also had positive training all summer and should improve. Newell has had problems falling in races and also with having the endurance to finish all of the rounds of the sprints, but he has worked hard on his endurance and should be better this season.

For the women, the battle will continue between Marit Bjoergen of Norway and Justina Kowalczyk from Poland for the title of best female skier in the world. Bjoergen will have the added motivation of the World Champs in Oslo, but she will have to be able to handle the incredible pressure of the Norwegian media. Her every step is monitored in the press and this can be overwhelming. Kowalczyk has been training harder than ever and she will be ready.

These two will be challenged by Charlotte Kalla from Sweden, especially in skating races. Kalla is one of the best technical skaters in the world and showed it with an Olympic gold medal in the 10km skate in Vancouver. Her teammate, Anna Haag will also be strong, but she is still quite new to the World Cup, so she may not be there in every race.

Therese Johaug of Norway is also very fast, but Kristen Stormer-Steira has battled injuries all summer and is a big question mark for Norway.

Aino-Kaisa Saarinen of Finland will continue to be strong in classic where she is technically one of the best, but she is not a very good skater which hurts her in pursuits. Virpi Kuitunen has retired and the rest of the Finnish women’s team with the exception of Riita-Liisa Roponen are still behind the best.

Petra Majdic of Slovenia is making a comeback following her horrendous freak crash while training prior to the sprints in Vancouver. Her courageous bronze medal was the last race of the season for her but her training has gone well this summer and she is fully healed. She is looking forward to battling with the best this winter.

The Russian women continue to struggle. Their previous dominant results seemed to have been based in part on doping so they have fired all of their coaches and started again to try to be at their best in Sochi in 2014. It will be interesting to see what they can do this winter.

Kikkan Randall of the US has had a great summer of training, some of it in Canada and with the Canadian team. She is a definite favourite for a medal in the skate sprints in Oslo and she had also been working on her distance skiing. The rest of the women led by Liz Stephen and Morgan Arritola will have to improve quite a bit before they can get to this level.

With the retirement of Sara Renner, the leadership of the Canadian womens’ team is now firmly in the hands of Chandra Crawford. Crawford is fully healed from her foot problems and has had a full summer of great training. She is working towards making the final of the sprints in Oslo and if she does – watch out. This woman knows how to race and to win! Dasha Gaiazova made some big improvements last year and should be on the World Cup circuit all year as the next best skier. Watch for Brittany Webster to make a strong move forward and for Perianne Jones to continue to do well in sprints.

One last note. This FIS XC committee continues to look for ways to make xc skiing more exciting. One proposal on the table this year from an organizing committee in Poland is to have a World Cup race that is a 4km continuous uphill followed by a 4km downhill. I hope that they decide to do this race – it would be fun to watch.





1 Comments For This Post

  1. xcskier22, Montana, says:

    Here’s hoping the American men have the breakthrough in Oslo. Newell and Freeman are due for a medal winning performance at a major championships. I think Kikkan is one of the favourites to win gold in the ladies sprint.

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